CONSERVATIVE PARTY
Conservative MP Candice Hoeppner's private-member's bill to scrap the gun registry will, despite the controversy and debate it has stirred up, ultimately be beneficial to the Conservative Party regardless of the result of the vote. Whereas the Liberal Party stands to lose some credibility, and the NDP stands to lose - period, the Conservative Party will certainly come out on top whether they win or lose the vote on Wednesday.
As established in prior blog posts, the Liberal Party and the NDP will not fare well following the vote. Liberals will lose credibility. Ignatieff's choice to whip the Liberal vote, along with unverified accusations of a Conservative-NRA conspiracy won't help the party. The NDP will either be blamed for the demise of the gun registry, or face stiff competition in its rural ridings from Conservative Party candidates in the next election.
The Conservative Party stands to gain the most following the vote, and will sacrifice very little - despite John Baird's elitist comment. A backbench MP proposed the private member's bill. The Conservatives have nothing at stake if they lose the vote. It's not a vote of confidence, and their government is not at risk of being toppled in any way. Conservatives could potentially lose votes in urban centres; however, the potential gains they make in rural ridings may negate any losses in cities.
Photo from the Vancouver Sun
If Candice Hoeppner's bill passes, the Conservative Party will have achieved one of its main goals. However if the bill is defeated, the Conservatives will still be in an advantageous position come election time. Conservatives could be in line to take seats away from rural MPs who initially voted to scrap the registry, and then changed their position. This could put 8 Liberal, and 12 NDP MPs' seats at risk.
In a recent interview published in the Hill Times, Nik Nanos, of Nanos Research, noted that "if the long-gun registry continues, it will be NDP candidates and MPs in rural Canada that will probably face the brunt of the attack from the Conservatives [...] In a way, it's a no-win situation for the NDP."
The Conservative Party is already on the offensive. They launched a website entitled Scrap the Long-Gun Registry. There's a section that allows visitors to contact Liberal and NDP MPs to urge them to scrap the registry. Personalized radio ads targeting specific MPs were also produced. The Conservatives will certainly take full-advantage of waffling opposition MPs.
Essentially, the Conservative Party stands to gain the most from the gun registry vote. They risk very little in pursuing this cause via a backbench MP, and could potentially gain seats due to an aggressive campaign against opposition MPs.
Fair well or fare well or farewell?
ReplyDeleteI think you're absolutely right. Most Canadians don't like the Gun Registry, which cost two billion dollars and did absolutely nothing, especially when you look at the Montreal Dawson College shooting in 2006. It's a win-win for the Cons, even if the vote isn't a success. I also have to wonder why Jack Layton allowed his party members to vote independently if he wanted to save the Gun Registry...
ReplyDelete