JAMES CAMERON FILMING AVATAR 2 IN ALBERTA?

Photo from cbc.ca 

We can now all sleep easy at night. James Cameron is on the job.

                              

Cameron is in Alberta touring the province's oil sands operations as part of a fact finding mission. According to a quote in the Edmonton Sun, he is trying "to get a balanced view of what's going on."

What somebody should've told Cameron is that he could've stayed at home and Googled the topic. Besides which, Nancy Pelosi beat him to the punch.

I'm tired of do-gooding celebrities. Am I the only person who's fed up with smug celebrities voicing their opinions on every issue imaginable? 

ENOUGH IS ENOUGH

                      Photo from Jason DeCrow/AP  

In his address to a virtually empty United Nations General Assembly September 23, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad opined that Americans staged the 9/11 attacks "in an attempt to assure Israel's survival." I don't know who keeps inviting him to speak... Perhaps they should reconsider.


I believe in the free and open expression of ideas, but not when it's hate speech masquerading as free speech. To quote a Fox News headline, what comes out of Ahmadinejad's mouth is "U.N.-Believable."

HOW TO LOSE AN ELECTION

It was a gamble, but Judy Wasylycia-Leis basically handed Sam Katz the win.

                                          Photo from the National Post

We'll have to wait and see what the reaction will be to Wasylycia-Leis' announcement that she would raise taxes if elected mayor of Winnipeg. I would suspect however, that it will probably end in swift defeat.


For starters, raising taxes doesn't look good in print. The headline in the Winnipeg Free Press read 'Vote for me, and I'll raise taxes: Judy.' That's probably not what Wasylycia-Leis' campaign team wanted to see.


I agree with Wasylycia-Leis' assessment that we need more money for infrastructure in Winnipeg. There is also no doubt that we need new sources of revenue - although an increase in property taxes isn't the best approach; rather lowering the business tax would probably have a more desired long-term impact on increasing civic revenue - but to propose an increase in taxes while campaigning is political suicide.


Katz' strategy at this stage is quite clear: let Judy sink her own ship. He doesn't even have to answer any questions about the possibility of a tax increase. If the topic comes up, he can easily deflect the question by reminding the press that Wasylycia-Leis wants to raise taxes.


Katz suggested that the property tax freeze would not last forever; however, he never specifically said that he would end it. It's in his best interest to remain vague on the topic. He may in fact raise property taxes, but at least he and his campaign team have the common sense to avoid the topic altogether.

TO KILL, OR NOT TO KILL? - CONSERVATIVE PARTY

CONSERVATIVE PARTY

                                          Photo from the Globe and Mail

Conservative MP Candice Hoeppner's private-member's bill to scrap the gun registry will, despite the controversy and debate it has stirred up, ultimately be beneficial to the Conservative Party regardless of the result of the vote. Whereas the Liberal Party stands to lose some credibility, and the NDP stands to lose - period, the Conservative Party will certainly come out on top whether they win or lose the vote on Wednesday.

As established in prior blog posts, the Liberal Party and the NDP will not fare well following the vote. Liberals will lose credibility. Ignatieff's choice to whip the Liberal vote, along with unverified accusations of a Conservative-NRA conspiracy won't help the party. The NDP will either be blamed for the demise of the gun registry, or face stiff competition in its rural ridings from Conservative Party candidates in the next election. 

The Conservative Party stands to gain the most following the vote, and will sacrifice very little - despite John Baird's elitist comment. A backbench MP proposed the private member's bill. The Conservatives have nothing at stake if they lose the vote. It's not a vote of confidence, and their government is not at risk of being toppled in any way. Conservatives could potentially lose votes in urban centres; however, the potential gains they make in rural ridings may negate any losses in cities.  

                                  Photo from the Vancouver Sun

If Candice Hoeppner's bill passes, the Conservative Party will have achieved one of its main goals. However if the bill is defeated, the Conservatives will still be in an advantageous position come election time.  Conservatives could be in line to take seats away from rural MPs who initially voted to scrap the registry, and then changed their position. This could put 8 Liberal, and 12 NDP MPs' seats at risk.

In a recent interview published in the Hill Times, Nik Nanos, of Nanos Research, noted that "if the long-gun registry continues, it will be NDP candidates and MPs in rural Canada that will probably face the brunt of the attack from the Conservatives [...] In a way, it's a no-win situation for the NDP."

The Conservative Party is already on the offensive. They launched a website entitled Scrap the Long-Gun Registry. There's a section that allows visitors to contact Liberal and NDP MPs to urge them to scrap the registry. Personalized radio ads targeting specific MPs were also produced. The Conservatives will certainly take full-advantage of waffling opposition MPs. 

Essentially, the Conservative Party stands to gain the most from the gun registry vote.  They risk very little in pursuing this cause via a backbench MP, and could potentially gain seats due to an aggressive campaign against opposition MPs.

TO KILL, OR NOT TO KILL? - NDP

NDP

                                          Photo from the National Post

The private-member's bill proposed by Conservative Party MP Candice Hoeppner to eliminate the gun registry has proven to be a divisive issue. Canadians are generally split on whether or not to keep the gun registry. The division is most acute between urban and rural populations; urban Canadians want to keep the gun registry, whereas rural Canadians want it eliminated.

                                          Photo from thestar.com 

Jack Layton and the NDP are in a particularly difficult situation. The NDP must weigh its options carefully as some of its MPs are from rural ridings who would like to see the registry eliminated. Although Layton is strongly against the bill to scrap the gun registry, his MPs have been less than united behind their leader in their responses to date. Previously, 12 NDP MPs voted to eliminate the registry.

Layton, unlike Ignatieff, will allow his MPs to vote freely on the issue. I must commend his decision to allow his MPs to vote as they see fit - it is certainly more democratic than a whipped vote. The only possible downside to a free vote however, is that it doesn't necessarily guarantee that his MPs will vote to keep the registry. To make matters worse, the Liberal Party, or the Conservative Party, could stand to gain from the outcome of the NDPs MPs votes.

No matter the outcome of the vote, the NDP will find itself in a losing position. If the registry is eliminated with the help of some NDP votes, the Liberal Party will find it very easy to blame Layton for the registry's demise. Michael Ignatieff is already prepared to blame Layton if the registry is eliminated. An article in the Toronto Sun quoted Ignatieff saying: "If gun control dies on September 22nd, it will be because Jack Layton and the NDP failed to show leadership."

On the other hand, if the MPs who previously voted to eliminate the registry change their minds and vote to keep it, the Conservative Party will improve its chances of gaining seats held by the NDP in rural ridings in the next election. As Don Martin states in his article in the National Post, Conservatives are implementing aggressive campaigns against "waffling opposition MPs." The Conservative Party could stand to gain seats from flip-flopping NDP MPs.

Unfortunately for Layton, the NDP is in a no-win situation.

In the next installment, the Conservative Party will be examined in detail.