BYELECTION RESULTS DO PROVIDE DEEPER TRUTH

In a recent article about the November 29 federal byelections appearing in the Winnipeg Free Press, writer Dan Lett laments the fact that the byelection results didn't provide, in his opinion, a substantive change in the overall composition of the Canadian electoral landscape.

Lett writes "We in the media are trained to detect and report the slightest change in the fortune or momentum. But the results in these most recent byelections do not change the fact that this is a country in political gridlock."

Although I agree with the assertion that the country is, based on the current distribution of seats, in a state of political gridlock, I believe that the byelections do provide us with an intriguing view of Canadian politics. The results provide us with a glimpse into the potential makeup of the next parliament.

I make this claim based on the potential for a minority government (I personally loathe the idea of a minority government, but constitutionally it could be done). The NDP and the Liberals each lost long-held seats. The NDP lost to the Liberals in Winnipeg North, and the Liberals lost Vaughan to the Conservatives. The NDP seem to be losing momentum, and the Liberals are stagnant.

Vaughan byelection winner Julian Fantino

(Picture from vaughanelection.wordpress.com/) 

Without rehashing years of political studies course notes (I will paraphrase for everyone's benefit), we are living in an era of minority government politics. This will remain the case, in my opinion, so long as the Bloc Quebecois is strong. If the NDP and the Liberals feel that they can't overtake the Conservatives, a likely outcome would be a coalition.

You can always find greater meaning in byelection results, even if it doesn't look like it at a quick glance.